It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
